SilverMacro
Global macro research

We measure every asset against every other asset

SilverMacro is a global macro research company. We study what markets are worth when the dollar is taken out of the measurement: stocks in ounces of gold, homes in units of the stock market, oil in Treasury bonds.

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Change the ruler

The same asset tells a different story depending on what you measure it in. Pick an asset and a unit of account.

Asset
Measured in

Monthly prices, log scale, both lines start at 1. Price only, without dividends, rent or interest (Treasuries are a total-return index). Oil from 1986, Manhattan homes from 1987. Data to November 2026 from public sources; historical data only, not a forecast.

The idea

What is an asset worth when it is measured in other assets instead of dollars?

Every price is a ratio. Quoting everything in dollars hides most of them. We look at all of them.

Dollars move too

A price in dollars mixes the asset's own story with inflation and currency moves. A rising chart can simply be a falling ruler.

Every pair tells its own story

Stocks in ounces of gold, homes in units of the stock market, oil in Treasury bonds. Each ratio shows how one part of the economy is valued against another.

Signal or noise

Our aim is to find which of these relationships carry lasting information about the economic and market cycle, and which are noise.

Method

Built to avoid fooling ourselves

Long history, strict testing and a high bar. Many ideas were tested and most were dropped. What counts is persistence across time and markets, not a good-looking chart.

1970–2026Monthly history

Stocks, bonds, precious metals, real estate, commodities, credit and currencies, from public sources.

Real timeNo look-ahead

Every test uses only information that was available at that moment in history.

Two periodsTested twice

An idea is kept only if it holds up in two separate periods of history.

EquitiesS&P 500, Nasdaq-100, DowPrice and total return
Precious metalsGold, silver, platinumOunces as a unit of account
Real estateManhattan, Los AngelesHomes, with net rent
EnergyWTI crude oilBarrels as a unit of account
Rates10-year TreasuriesTotal-return index
Findings

What five decades of relative prices suggest

Research observations about how markets have behaved. They describe the past and are not predictions.

Cheap is not a timing signal

Relative prices that looked extreme often stayed extreme for years when tested in real time.

Big moves tend to persist

Long moves between assets lasted longer than most people expect, in line with a large body of academic work.

Markets talk to each other

Some cross-market relationships appear to reflect the economic and credit cycle.

Breadth beats any single idea

Looking across many unrelated markets told us more than any one ratio on its own.

Further reading: Moskowitz, Ooi and Pedersen, "Time Series Momentum", Journal of Financial Economics (2012).

Research tool

Explore the ratios yourself

Our research tool re-prices ten assets in each other, back to 1970. It is free to use and shows historical data only.

  • Pick any unit of accountDollars, gold, silver, oil, Treasuries, homes or a stock index.
  • Pair explorerSee how many of one asset buy another, and where today sits in its full history.
  • Ratio mapA grid of every pair, showing how stretched each relationship is today.
Open the research tool
About

An independent global macro research company

SilverMacro studies global markets through relative prices. Our work covers equities, bonds, precious metals, real estate and commodities, built on public data and methods that can be checked.

We write for family offices, institutional investors and research partners who want a view of markets that does not depend on the dollar as the only yardstick.

A conversation about the research

We welcome an experienced view on our method, ideas for research or data partnerships, and requests for a walkthrough.

contact@silvermacro.com